When nations prosper, they don鈥檛 always play nice.
New research by Dr Ashani Amarasinghe, from the 爆料王 School of Economics, sheds light on how governments use periods of economic strength not just to uplift their citizens, but to amplify their voice鈥攁nd sometimes aggression鈥攐n the international stage.
In a new working paper co-authored with Dr Kathryn Baragwanath (University of Melbourne), Dr Amarasinghe introduces a novel way to measure interactions between governments across the globe. By analysing nearly two decades of high-frequency international event data, the researchers reveal a striking pattern: as domestic economic conditions improve, governments are more likely to engage in verbally aggressive behaviour toward other countries.
The authors interpret this as a form of status-seeking鈥攁 strategic attempt by states to enhance their international prestige without risking costly conflict.
A new lens on global diplomacy
At the heart of the paper is a new measure of 鈥渄yadic aggression鈥濃攁 monthly index that captures hostile or confrontational language and actions between governments.
Drawing on data from the Global Database of Events, Language and Tone (GDELT), the authors analysed over 18,000 bilateral country pairings between 2001 and 2019. This approach allowed them to track shifts in international behaviour at a level of detail previously unavailable to researchers.
To examine the drivers of these shifts, the authors focused on one of the most exogenous sources of economic change: global commodity price shocks. By linking fluctuations in world prices to individual countries鈥 export portfolios, they could isolate the effect of unexpected windfalls from natural resources鈥攍ike oil, gas or minerals鈥攐n a government鈥檚 behaviour abroad.
The results are clear: when countries benefit from positive commodity price shocks, they become more verbally aggressive towards other governments. Crucially, this aggression is not random or reckless鈥攊t is calculated and strategic.
We find that governments direct this behaviour toward peripheral states, not major trading partners or sources of foreign investment, they鈥檙e seeking status without threatening their economic interests.
Dr Ashani Amarasinghe
Interestingly, countries don鈥檛 lash out at just anyone. 鈥淲e find that governments direct this behaviour toward peripheral states, not major trading partners or sources of foreign investment,鈥 Dr Amarasinghe explains.
鈥淭hey鈥檙e seeking status without threatening their economic interests.鈥
This finding helps distinguish status-seeking from traditional theories of international aggression based on material conflict. The study shows that verbal posturing鈥攕uch as diplomatic rebukes, demands, or threats鈥攊ncreases, while more serious actions like military aggression do not. In other words, governments are flexing their political muscles, not their military ones.
The politics of posturing
The domestic political context also plays a key role. The study finds that this form of status-seeking is most prevalent in low- and middle-income countries, and in political systems where leaders face electoral pressure.
鈥淚t鈥檚 about using domestic popularity鈥攂uoyed by economic success鈥攖o project strength abroad,鈥 says Dr Amarasinghe.
In these contexts, aggression serves a dual purpose: it elevates a country鈥檚 status internationally, while also shoring up support at home. Citizens in resource-rich countries may interpret assertive foreign policy as a sign of leadership strength, especially when directed at historical rivals or ideologically distant nations.
As commodity markets remain volatile and geopolitical tensions persist, this research has important implications for international diplomacy. It suggests that rising assertiveness from some states may stem not from sudden grievances, but from newfound confidence.
Understanding the domestic roots of these behaviours could help policymakers and international institutions better anticipate鈥攁nd potentially defuse鈥攔hetorical escalation before it becomes something more serious.
This working paper, Getting Along or Getting Ahead? The Domestic Roots of Status-Seeking in International Relations, represents a significant advance in our understanding of how domestic conditions shape global interactions. For Dr Amarasinghe, it鈥檚 part of a broader research agenda exploring how political leaders navigate the complex interplay between domestic pressures and international ambitions.
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