The Paris Climate Agreement: What comes next for Australia will be hard
We know that to make a meaningful contribution to combating climate change, Australia needs a credible path听to net zero emissions by 2050, writes Professor Tim Stephens.听
Tomorrow, world leaders and diplomats will听听to sign the听. It will be the听, with representatives from听, including more than 60 heads of state, on hand to sign the historic deal that was听.
Signing is just the first step. Nations then have to follow through by听. Only when 55 countries, representing at least 55% of world greenhouse emissions, have signed and ratified the agreement will it become binding under international law.
Such is the eagerness among the international community to sign and ratify the Paris Agreement that it is听, rather than in 2020 as was initially expected.
As 2016听, there is a renewed sense of urgency among almost all governments. They now acknowledge that greenhouse emissions must be reduced rapidly if there is any hope of meeting the Paris Agreement鈥檚 goal of keeping global warming well below 2鈩�.
Australia鈥檚 government has听听that it will be represented at the ceremony, although it will be Environment Minister Greg Hunt rather than Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull who will join world leaders in听.
Australia鈥檚 track record
Australia has signed previous climate treaties, but it has a mixed record in following through with its commitments.
罢丑别听. In the same year, it signed and ratified the听. That agreement gave rise to the UN climate regime of which the Paris Agreement is now the most important component.
In 1997, the听听迟丑别听, in the process winning major concessions that allowed Australia to听听rather than reduce them.
Despite this sweetener, John Howard refused to take the logical step and render Kyoto legally binding by ratifying it. The Kyoto Protocol only entered into force in 2005, after Russia ratified the treaty. It was not until 2007, following the election of the Rudd government, that Australia听.
"The Turnbull government鈥檚 active and supportive participation in last year鈥檚 Paris climate negotiations signalled that, on the international plane at least, some bipartisanship has returned to Australia鈥檚 climate policy," writes Professor Stephens.听
In 2011 the Gillard government introduced an emissions trading scheme (with an initial fixed carbon price) to ensure Australia could meet its Kyoto commitments (and deliver deeper cuts over time, as by itself Kyoto has achieved minimal emissions reductions). But the Abbott government repealed this measure in July 2014 and replaced it with the听. This policy remains a work in progress and has听听to keep Australia鈥檚 goals within reach.
Australia鈥檚 actions since 2013 are clearly against the international tide.听, 40 nations and 23 subnational jurisdictions have adopted or are planning to adopt carbon prices.
The Turnbull government鈥檚 active and supportive participation in last year鈥檚 Paris climate negotiations signalled that, on the international plane at least, some bipartisanship has returned to Australia鈥檚 climate policy. The same cannot be said of the domestic front, where the major parties are still at loggerheads on the climate challenge.
Opposition Leader Bill Shorten has pledged that a Labor government would听听if elected this year. But the Coalition government remains implacably opposed to any price on carbon. This is despite the fact that Turnbull himself听听and previously听听on emissions trading in 2009. Even Howard听听in the dying days of his government in 2007.
Tricky times
This is a major problem because without agreement across political lines, Australia could be signing a treaty with which it cannot comply.
Australia is the听听and the highest per capita emitter in the OECD. Now, because of the abolition of the carbon price, its emissions are听.
Australia looks set to overshoot even its听听of reducing emissions by 26-28% by 2030 relative to 2005 levels. And as commitments under the Paris Agreement will become stricter over time, with the deal requiring countries to听听every five years, Australia will be in an increasingly difficult and embarrassing position of having made promises it cannot keep.
This may set the scene for dithering by the Turnbull government, in much the same way as the Howard government held out against ratifying the Kyoto Protocol for a decade before finally proposing a climate policy when electorally it was already too late.
This year is off to a scorching start. Globally, February was a听听and March听. The effects are being felt from the polar regions, where the melting of the听, to the tropics and subtropics, where record warm waters have听.
We know that to make a meaningful contribution to combating climate change, Australia needs a听听to net zero emissions by 2050. To do this the Turnbull government must match its international commitments with effective laws and policies at home.
Legislating Australia鈥檚 climate targets, setting a national cap on emissions, and pricing carbon pollution are vital if Australia鈥檚 signature on the Paris Agreement is to mean anything at all.
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is a Professor of International Law with expertise in environmental law. This article was first published in听.听
