The report concluded that although we don鈥檛 know conclusively where the virus that caused the pandemic came from: "a zoonotic origin with spillover from animals to humans is currently considered the best supported hypothesis."
SAGO did not find scientific evidence to support 鈥渁 deliberate manipulation of the virus in a laboratory and subsequent biosafety breach鈥.
This follows a series of and since the early days of the pandemic that have reached similar conclusions: COVID most likely emerged from an infected animal at the Huanan market in Wuhan, and was not the result of a lab leak.
But conspiracy theories about COVID鈥檚 origins persist. And this is hampering our ability to prevent the next pandemic.
Attacks on our research
As experts in the emergence of viruses, we published a peer-reviewed paper in in 2020 on the origins of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID.
Like SAGO, we evaluated several hypotheses for how a novel coronavirus could have emerged in Wuhan in late 2019. We concluded the virus very likely emerged through a natural spillover from animals 鈥 a 鈥渮oonosis鈥 鈥 caused by the unregulated wildlife trade in China.
Since then, our paper has become a focal point of and .
The idea SARS-CoV-2 might have is not, in itself, a conspiracy theory. Like many scientists, we . And we still do, although evidence hasn鈥檛 emerged to support it.
But the public discourse around the origin of the pandemic has increasingly been shaped by and . Some of this has and who have studied this question in a data-driven manner.
A common conspiracy theory claims to promote the 鈥溾 hypothesis of a natural origin, while silencing the possibility of a lab leak. Some conspiracy theories even propose with grant funding in exchange.
These . They , or the extensive body of evidence on the origin of the pandemic. Instead, they rely on selective quoting from private discussions and a distorted portrayal of the scientific process and the .
So what does the evidence tell us?
In the five years since our Nature Medicine paper, a substantial body of new evidence has emerged that has deepened our understanding of how SARS-CoV-2 most likely emerged through a natural spillover.
In early 2020, the case for a zoonotic origin was already compelling. Much-discussed features of the virus and carry signatures of natural evolution. The genome of SARS-CoV-2 showed no signs of laboratory manipulation.
The multi-billion-dollar and in China regularly moves high-risk animals, , into dense urban centres.
It鈥檚 believed that SARS-CoV-1, the virus responsible for the SARS outbreak, emerged this way in 2002 in .
Similarly, detailed analyses of epidemiological data show the earliest known COVID cases the Huanan live-animal market in Wuhan, in the Hubei province, .
Multiple independent data sources, including early , , and indicate COVID first spread in the district where the market is located.
In a we and other experts showed that environmental samples positive for SARS-CoV-2 clustered in the section of the market where wildlife was sold.
In a we demonstrated those same samples contained genetic material from susceptible animals 鈥 including raccoon dogs and civets 鈥 on cages, carts, and other surfaces used to hold and transport them.
This doesn鈥檛 prove infected animals were the source. But it鈥檚 precisely what we would expect if the market was where the virus first spilled over. And it鈥檚 contrary to what would be expected from a lab leak.
These and all point to the Huanan market as the of the COVID pandemic.
Hindering preparedness for the next pandemic
Speculation and conspiracy theories around the origin of COVID have . The between lab leak and zoonotic origin theories assigned by some commentators has added fuel to the conspiracy fire.
This , stemming in part , is being used to help justify deep cuts to funding for biomedical research, public health and global aid. These areas are essential for pandemic preparedness.
In the United States this has meant major cuts to the and the , the closure of the , and .
and public health institutions also hinders the development and uptake of . This leaves us more vulnerable to future pandemics.
The amplification of conspiracy theories about the origin of COVID has promoted a dangerously flawed understanding of pandemic risk. The idea that a researcher discovered or engineered a pandemic virus, accidentally infected themselves, and unknowingly sparked a global outbreak (in exactly the type of setting where natural spillovers are known to occur) defies logic. It also detracts from the significant risk posed by the wildlife trade.
In contrast, the that the COVID pandemic most likely began with a virus jumping from animals to humans highlights the very real risk we increasingly face. This is , and it will happen again. But we鈥檙e dismantling our ability to stop it or prepare for it.